We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based equity valuation estimates to examine whether analysts can assess the state-contingent risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' scenario-based valuations captures the riskiness of operations and...

In all investment decisions it is important to determine the degree of uncertainty associated with the valuation of a company. We propose an original and robust methodology to company valuation which replaces the traditional point estimate of the conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) with a...

In this article, the authors present a conceptual framework named 'Adaptive Seriational Risk Parity' (ASRP) to extend Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) as an asset allocation heuristic. The first step of HRP (quasi-diagonalization) determining the hierarchy of assets is required for the actual...

Using a large sample of U.S. firms during 1987–2011, we find robust evidence that the issuance of seasoned equity is associated with abnormally high future stock price crash risk. The association between seasoned equity offerings and crash risk is stronger among offerings that involve the sale...

Funds of Hedge Funds (FHF) are perceived to be the premier choice of institutional investors for first-time allocations into the alternative investment asset class. While many papers cover the bright side of FHF investing, we in this paper empirically investigate the maximum drawdowns of FHF....

Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk, under different macroeconomic conditions (low versus high...

Using textual analysis for a large sample of analyst reports, we find that analysts are more likely to use a DCF model and to discuss more cash flow and discount rate information for firms with more uncertainty, especially under heightened aggregate economic uncertainty and bearish market...

We show that uncertainty of monetary policy (MPU) commands a risk premium in the US Treasury bond market. Using the news based MPU measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) to capture monetary policy uncertainty, we find that MPU forecasts significantly and positively future monthly Treasury...

We investigate the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the time series variation of Chinese stock market expected returns. Using the news based measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), we find that EPU predicts negatively future stock market return at various horizons. This...

Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return predictability and the failure to convert return forecasts into economic gains. We show that resolving this puzzle requires accounting for important features of bond return models such...