We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward-looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational, conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that...

Different types of natural events hit the United States every year. The data of natural hazards from 1900 to 2016 in the US shows that there is an increasing trend in annul natural disaster losses after 1980. Climate change is recognized as one of the factors causing this trend, and predictive...

We analyze the equilibrium in a two-tree (sector) economy with two regimes. The output of each tree is driven by a jump-diffusion process, and a downward jump in one sector of the economy can (but need not) trigger a shift to a regime where the likelihood of future jumps is generally higher....

Popular press and some practitioners have warned against threats that buying risky assets pose on agents saving for retirement, children education and other uses. This paper shows that in a standard two-period general equilibrium model where some savers have no risk-sharing motives, there exists...

I examine if the positive correlation between wealth and survivorship has any implications for the progressivity of Social Security's current benefit-earnings rule. Using a general-equilibrium macroeconomic model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that the optimal benefit-earnings link for...