This study presents a technique that can jointly model and simulate the expected values, variances, and covariances of sets of correlated time-series dependent variables that are autocorrelated and non-normal (right or left skewed and/or kurtotic). It illustrates the method by applying it to...

Over the last 20 years, costs for wildfire initial attack in the U.S. have increased significantly. The increased cost relates to wildfire suppression practices as well as the growing number of wildland urban interface (WUI) homes. Requiring WUI residents to pay an annual tax for their wildfire...

Taiwan had approximately 3,000 buildings damaged by floods with an economic loss of NT$12.8 billion annually, a figure 4.5 times more than economic losses due to fire damages. Many insurers become extremely cautious when underwriting their flood policies for people living in areas that are...

A method is suggested for modeling uncertainty when there is a lack of information concerning the effect of forest management decisions on tree growth. Dynamic programming is used to investigate the optimality of alternative management strategies. The model is illustrated with an empirical...

This paper studies the structure of state-contingent contracts in the presence of moral hazard and multi-tasking. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the presence of multi-tasking to lead to fixed payments instead of incentive schemes are identified. It is shown that the primary determinant...

Australian urban water utilities face a significant challenge in designing appropriate demand management and supply augmentation policies in the presence of increasing water scarcity and uncertainty over future dam inflows. This paper considers the design of optimal demand management and supply...

The purpose of this research is to develop a rainfall insurance product to insure irrigation costs applied to NAP crops, and to compare the efficacy of this insurance on a dollar basis relative to conventional crop insurance. An economic model is developed that illustrates the relationship...

Thaba Nchu is a semi-arid area with low and erratic annual rainfall not exceeding 600mm. Various dryland crops are produced with relatively low yields and high risk of failure. Lack of appropriate technology and other constraints has led to most of the arable land being unused thus restricting...

Risk and uncertainty in a water market will generate trading patterns that differ from those expected under conditions of perfect foresight. Although trades will occur based on differences in VMPs of water in both markets, they will also be generated by differences in risk. Some farmers will...