A typical Texas High Plains cotton farm was simulated over a 10-year planning horizon using the FLIPSIM IV model to compare the effects of (a) participation in the Federal Crop Insurance (FCI) program, (b) participation in the ASCS low yield disaster program with either high or low target...

The Dungeness is a popular food and the most commercially important crab in the western states in the U.S. Like all agricultural production, the crab fisherman face yield risks and must manage these risks. In addition to weather risk, crab fisherman may experience low yields if the crabs are...

The aim of this study was to compare production and policy risk of organic, integrated and conventional cropping systems in Norway. Experimental cropping system data (1991-1999) from eastern Norway were combined with budgeted data. Empirical distributions of total farm income for different...

Because relevant historical data for farms are inevitably sparse, most risk programming studies rely on few observations. We discuss how to use available information to derive an appropriate multivariate distribution function that can be sampled for a more complete representation of the possible...

The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a...

The effect of the farmer's choice of crop insurance was evaluated on both the farmer's and lender's performance. This was done using whole-farm, Monte Carlo simulation for Texas wheat/sorghum operations. Results indicate crop insurance would be preferred by moderately risk-averse farmers when...

The attached file contains the original proposal for the post conference workshop, the agenda used at the conference, the overheads used to present the topic, and a summary of the evaluations. The workshop introduced participants to risk analysis using Excel and Simetar a simulation/econometrics...

This paper reports SERF analysis to help rice landlords in the Upper Coastal Bend of Texas evaluate alternative crop insurance combinations of yield loss and prevented planting coverage levels given uncertainty related to surface irrigation water curtailment. For baseline and high curtailment...

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/04/08.

The economic feasibility of producing ethanol from sweet sorghum juice is projected using Monte Carlo simulation models to estimate the price ethanol plants will likely have to pay for sweet sorghum and the uncertain returns for ethanol plants. Ethanol plants in high yielding regions will likely...