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When risk averse forecasters are presented with risk neutral proper scoring rules, they report probabilities whose ratios are shaded towards 1. If elicited probabilities are used as inputs to decision-making, naive elicitors may violate first-order stochastic dominance.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041554
The literature on proper scoring rules has mostly studied the case of risk neutral agents. We analytically investigate how risk averse, expected utility maximizing forecasters behave when presented with risk neutral proper scoring rules. If the state variable is binary, risk averse agents shade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109463
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009699407