Estimating the probabilities by which different events might occur is usually a delicate task, subject to many sources of inaccuracies. Moreover, these probabilities can change over time, leading to a very difficult evaluation of the risk induced by any particular decision. Given a set of...

We propose a systematic algorithmic reverse-stress testing methodology to create ``worst case" scenarios for regulatory stress tests by accounting for losses that arise from distressed portfolio liquidations. First, we derive the optimal bank response for any given shock. Then, we introduce an...