Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to build an easy to implement, pragmatic and parsimonious yet accurate model to determine an exposure at default (EAD) distribution for CCL (contingent credit lines) portfolios. Design/methodology/approach – Using an algorithm similar to the basic...

Recent research provides considerable evidence that correlations between assets change significantly over time and diversification benefits of correlations may vary substantially based on the time-varying measure of correlation used for different asset types. Our study evaluates and compares...

In recent years, the question of how to prevent another crippling re-cession has become a prominent one. The answer provided by the Dodd-Frank Act is stress testing, which examines through economic models how banks would react to a bad turn of economic events, such as negative interest rates....

This Columbia Law School Blue Sky Blog post advocates for the introduction of a Bayesian model that takes into account prior inputs in bank stress testing. Specifically, the priors would be the previous Federal Reserve adverse scenarios. Failure to consider these prior scenarios could...

A Bayesian approach to default rate estimation is proposed and illustrated using a prior distribution assessed from an experienced industry expert. The principle advantage of the Bayesian approach is the potential for coherent incorporation of expert information - crucial when data are scarce or...