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We construct new measures of uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences - monetary policy … uncertainty (MPU) indexes. We show that, under a variety of VAR identification schemes, positive shocks to uncertainty about …. Our analysis suggests that policy rate normalization that is accompanied by reduced uncertainty can help neutralize the …
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We address the question to what extent a central bank can de-risk its balance sheet by unconventional monetary policy operations. To this end, we propose a novel risk measurement framework to empirically study the time-variation in central bank portfolio credit risks associated with such...
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We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the globe with an original and unique dataset that we make publicly available. Using a standard factor model, we derive theoretical measures of tail...
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We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on...
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