"Risk models are models of uncertainty, engineered for some purposes. They are educated guesses and hypotheses assessed and valued in terms of well-defined future states and their consequences. They are engineered to predict, to manage countable and accountable futures and to provide a frame of...

The purpose of this paper is to introduce and construct a state dependent counting and persistent random walk. Persistence is imbedded in a Markov chain for predicting insured claims based on their current and past period claim. We calculate for such a process, the probability generating...

Risk: The Convergence -- Risk Management Everywhere -- Probability Elements: An Applied Refresher -- Multivariate Probability Distributions: Applications and Risk Models -- Temporal Risk Processes -- Risk Measurement -- Risk Valuation -- Risk Economics and the Extended CCAPM -- Risk Pricing...

Estimation Theory for Generalized Linear Models -- New Distorsion Risk Measure Based on Bimodal Distributions -- Stress Testing Engineering: Risk Vs Incident -- The Skin In The Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Events -- The Fragility Theorem -- Financial Modeling, Memory and...