Using Consensus Economics survey data on experts’ expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia on the JPY/USD and the GBP/USD exchange markets. For each market and at a given horizon, we show that the risk premium is well determined by the conditional expected...

Using financial experts' Yen/USD exchange rate expectations provided by Consensus Forecasts surveys, this paper aims to model the 3 and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia, measured as the difference between the expected and forward exchange rates. The condition of predictability of returns...

Using survey-based monthly data over thirty years, we show that oil price expectations for 3- and 12-month horizons are not rational implying that the ex-ante oil risk premium is a more relevant concept for decision making than the widely popular ex-post premium. Using a portfolio choice model...