We test the relevance of technical and fundamental variables in forming currency portfolios. Carry, momentum and reversal all contribute to portfolio performance, whereas the real exchange rate and the current account do not. The resulting optimal portfolio outperforms the carry trade and other...

We find that the relation between state variables, such as the t-bill rate and term spread, and consumption growth is time-varying. In the cross-section of US stocks, risk premia for exposure to state variables vary over time accordingly. When a state variable predicts consumption strongly...

This appendix to 'Beyond the Carry Trade: Optimal Currency Portfolios' presents supplementary results not included in the paper.The paper may be found here: 'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2041460' http://ssrn.com/abstract=2041460

In this paper, I examine whether stock return dispersion (RD) provides useful information about future stock returns. RD consistently forecasts a decline in the excess market return at multiple horizons, and compares favorably with alternative predictors used in the literature. The out-of-sample...

Monetary policy, as captured by changes in the Fed funds rate (FFR), is a useful signal for investors. I analyze the economic significance of trading strategies based on the “out-of-sample” forecasting power of FFR for excess equity returns. A simple market timing strategy produces an annual...

We develop a simple three-factor consumption-based asset pricing model that includes wage growth as a risk factor, and evaluate whether the model explains six major CAPM anomalies: book-to-market, investment, operating profitability, long-term return reversal, net share issues, and residual...