This paper looks at unobserved components models and examines the implied weighting pat- terns for signal extraction. There are three main themes. The first is the implications of correlated disturbances driving the components, especially those cases in which the correlation is perfect. The...

This paper examines the application of the Least Absolute Deviations (LAD) method for ridge-type parameter estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) models. The methodology is aimed to deal with the SURE models with non-Gaussian error terms and highly collinear predictors in...

The method for estimation and testing for cointegration put forward by Johansen assumes that the data are described by a vector autoregressive process. In this article we extend the data generating process to autoregressive moving average models without unit roots in the MA polynomial. We first...

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and...

The paper compares the cointegration methods of Johansen and Bierens by means of simulations and a real world example. Drawing on the fact developed in a companion paper that the Johansen procedure has robustness properties against ARMA systems and the Bierens procedure is designed for ARMA...

We characterize the robustness of subsampling procedures by deriving a formula for the breakdown point of subsampling quantiles. This breakdown point can be very low for moderate subsampling block sizes, which implies the fragility of subsampling procedures, even when they are applied to robust...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...

Focusing on the model of demand-driven innovation and spatial competition over time in Jovanovic and Rob (1987), we study the effects of the robustness of estimators employed by firms to make inferences about their markets on the firms’ growth patterns. We show that if consumers’ signals in...

The paper proposes a novel inference procedure for long-horizon predictive regression with persistent regressors, allowing the autoregressive roots to lie in a wide vicinity of unity. The invalidity of conventional tests when regressors are persistent has led to a large literature dealing with...

GARCH volatilities depend on the unconditional variance, which is a non-linear function of the parameters. Consequently, they can have larger biases than estimated parameters. Using robust methods to estimate both parameters and volatilities is shown to outperform Maximum Likelihood procedures.