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This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...
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This dataset is a complement to the publication Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation. It shows estimates of agricultural support for OECD countries as well as some non-member economies. These summary tables which are designed specifically to monitor, and evaluate the level and...
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2017 for 25 US-traded commodities, we find a statistically significant increase in comovement among non-energy index …-commodities. This increase is only temporary. In contrast, no change in comovement is observed for off-index commodities over the entire … the results. Such comovement ‘index effect' is in line with the predictions of theoretical models of the financialization …
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A commodity index is designed as an equal-weighted set of four complementary tactics. The resulting portfolio takes …. Index performance is compared with long commodity indexes and commodity hedge funds. The benefits of an overlay strategy is …
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