Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

It remains unclear whether or not Russia will actually invade Ukraine, and if it does so, what form this invasion will take. In this note, we outline two broad scenarios: targeted strikes by Russia in Ukraine accompanied by further non-military destabilisation efforts, or a full invasion, and we...