We study the prospective operation of the Stability Pact by stochastic simulation. Using a forward-looking multi-country macroeconometric model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies, the Pact's provisions are formalized in detail, and alternative monetary and fiscal...

This paper deals with the estimation and testing of conditional duration models by looking at the density and baseline hazard functions. More precisely, we focus on the distance between the aprametric density (or hazard rate) function implied by the duration process and its non-parametric estimate.

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconomic model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.

We wish to analyse the new rules in the European fiscal and monetary environment, and to investigate the effects of fiscal and monetary activism in Europe. The new European Central Bank has to decide on its monetary policy stance and we aim in this paper to contribute to the debate of the best...