This paper applies mainstream statistical techniques (linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression) to a sample of over 6,000 Italian firms in the attempt to develop two distress prediction models, specifically constructed for SEs and taking into account diversity of size, geographical...

The results of our statistical analyses, conducted on a sample of small manufacturing firms in Northern and Central Italy, show that both discriminant analysis and logistic regression are effective tools for designing SEs default prediction models based on economic-financial ratios

The results of our statistical analyses, conducted on a sample of small manufacturing firms in Northern and Central Italy, show that both discriminant analysis and logistic regression are effective tools for designing SEs' default prediction models based on economic-financial ratios

From as early as the 1960s, there have been a large number of studies aimed at assessing the application of statistical models to corporation data with a view to predicting business failure. This issue has become increasingly important in recent years, as the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II)...

Previous empirical research shows the effectiveness of using sets of economic-financial ratios for company default prediction statistical modeling. However, such research rarely focuses on small enterprises (SEs) as specific units of analysis. In Italy, SEs account for more than 98% of all firms...

Most studies of enterprise default prediction modeling use financial ratios as independent variables, and focus on large and medium sized enterprises. In this study, we applied logistic regression to a sample of 860 Italian small manufacturing firms, and built a business prediction model based...

In our study, logistic regression was applied to a sample of 760 Italian small enterprises (SEs) in order to test the accuracy of a company default prediction model based on both economic-financial ratios and variables regarding managerial characteristics. We then compared the results obtained...

Purpose of the paper: To test whether the qualitative variables regarding the territory and/or the firm-territory relationship can improve the accuracy rates of small enterprise business failure prediction models.Methodology: We applied logistic regression to a sample of 736 Italian small...