This paper uses the ordered logit regression combining method to form consensus forecasts from different individual bond rating forecasts, to predict bond ratings in the transportation and industrial sectors form Moody's bond rating service.

This paper uses the ordered logit regression combining method to form consensus forecasts from different individual bond rating forecasts, to predict bond ratings in the transportation and industrial sectors form Moody's bond rating service.

This paper proposes a class of asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration models, which extends the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1997). The asymmetry consists of letting the duration process depend on the state of the price process in the beginning and at the end of the each duration. If...

A new model for the analysis of durations, the stochastic conditional dusration (SCD) model is introduced. This model is based on the assumption that the durations are generated by a latent stochastic factor that follows a first order autoregressive process. The lattent factor is perturbed...

This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation, the conditional variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while in a second formulation, small and big shocks...

In this paper we test for deterministic chaos(i.e., nonlinear deterministic processes which look random) in seven Mont Belview, Texas hydrocarbon markets, using monthly data from 1985:1 to 1996:12 -- the markets are those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naphta, crude oil, and...