This paper combines techniques drawn from the literature on evolutionary optimization algorithms along with bootstrap based statistical tests. Bootstrapping is used as a general framework for estimating objectives out of sample by redrawing subsets from a training sample. Evolution is used to...

This paper formulates a conformity test for cointegration for a multivariate I(1) process obeying a VAR specification. The test statistic is a function of the characteristic roots of the sample covariance matrix of the cointegral vector; the latter is obtained from the unrestricted estimation of...

In economics density forecasts are rarely available, and as a result attention has traditionally focused on poit forecasts of the mean and the use of mean square error statistics to represent the loss function. We extend the methods of forecasts density evaluation in Diebold, Gunther and Tay...

This paper puts forth a concept of Adptivety Rational Equilibrium (A.R.E) where agents base decisions upon predictions of future values of endogenous variables whose actual values are determined by equilibrium equations.

The relevance of the Borel paradox to Bayesian Synthesis is explained and illustrated by examples related to the assessment of bowhead whales. It is argued that the paradox is a serious, and that if conditions for the paradox to be of minor concern are observed, the attraction of the Bayesian...

The study of the distribution of real roots of a polynominal with random coefficients, which traces back at least to [BP32], has recently been developed in the direction of multivariate systems. This paper studies the more general case of mixed multihomogeneous systems.