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-frequency data, in line with IT developments, enables the use of more information to estimate not only the variance (volatility), but … with respect to the bandwidth selection as well as the sampling frequency selection. The main finding is that the kernel … bandwidth is strongly related to the sampling frequency at the slow-time-time scale when applying a two-scale estimator, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264979
state-observation sampling (SOS) filter, for general state-space models with intractable observation densities. Second, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093423
This note presents a nonparametric Bayesian approach to fitting a distribution to the survey data provided in Kilian and Zha (2002) regarding the prior for the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). A point mass at infinity is included. The unknown density is represented as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403123
A Bayesian semi-parametric estimation of the binary response model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is proposed. The performances of the parametric and semi-parametric models are presented. The mean squared errors, receiver operating characteristic curve, and the marginal effect are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938425
A Bayesian analysis is presented of a time series which is the sum of a stationary component with a smooth spectral density and a deterministic component consisting of a linear combination of a trend and periodic terms. The periodic terms may have known or unknown frequencies. The advantage of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014029563
of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the … volatility with piecewise constant realisations on bins forming a partition of the time interval. The values on the bins are … assigned an inverse Gamma Markov chain (IGMC) prior. Posterior inference is straightforward to implement via Gibbs sampling, as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852986
on high-frequency stock trading volumes and realized volatility forecasts demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009577035
This paper introduces a exible local projection that generalises the model by Jordà (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture non-linearities in the impulse responses. Our first application...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013179339
capturing interest rate risk. The so-called Stochastic Volatility Nelson-Siegel (SVNS) model allows for stochastic volatility in … evidence for time-varying volatility in the yield factors. This is mostly true for the level and slope volatility revealing … also the highest persistence. It turns out that the inclusion of stochastic volatility improves the model's goodness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952795
with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We find that in contrast to theory, for horizons close to two years, there … relationship becomes one-to-one, as the theory would predict …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080529