Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify implied probability distributions that might explain this...

In this paper, I study risk-neutral probability densities regarding future Libor rates denominated in British pounds, euros, and US dollars as implied by option prices. I apply Breeden and Litzenberger's (1978) result regarding the relationship between option prices and implied probabilities for...

Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put equity options, is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns at daily, weekly, monthly, to semiannual horizons. This...

Over-allotment arrangements are nowadays part of almost any initial public offering. The underwriting banks borrow stocks from the previous shareholders to issue more than the initially announced number of shares. This is combined with the option to cover this short position at the issue price....

Using day-end pricing data from a comprehensive data base not readily available outside of China, an algorithm to trade near-the-money call option time spreads on China's SSE 50 ETF was developed and tested. Analysis of in-sample data, suggested profitable trading rules that, when applied to...

One-factor no-arbitrage models of the short rate are important tools for valuing interest rate derivatives. Trees are often used to implement the models and fit them to the initial term structure. This paper generalizes existing tree building procedures so that a very wide range of interest rate...

With the innovation of derivatives, the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 index -- as an underlying asset of the volatility index (VIX) introduced by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) -- was adopted as the research subject in this study. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the degree of...

This paper documents that option-implied tail risk in the U.S. financial sector predicts real economic activity. The predictability is found to be incremental to the information content in a stock price-based measure of financial sector tail risk. This finding holds both in- and out-of-sample...

In this paper, we provide an exact formula for the skewness of stock returns implied in the Heston (1993) model by using a moment-computing approach. We compute the moments of Ito integrals by using Ito's Lemma skillfully. The model's affine property allows us to obtain analytical formulas for...