This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during …

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that … supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no … role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the …