During the last decade, the Austrian labour market experienced a substantial outward shift of the Beveridge curve - the relationship between the unemployment and the job vacancy rate. Using detailed administrative data on vacancies and registered unemployed by region and skill level, we test...

Before the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, discussions were already taking place on how to complete Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and increase its resilience, inter alia, by speeding up economic convergence. The impact of the current unprecedented crisis on the euro area...

There is growing evidence that the impact of financial development on economic growth might be non-linear and hump-shaped, exhibiting a turning point. However, such findings are typically established using total finances (mostly: credit), and the apparent non-linear impact of totals can stem...

An estimated baseline convergence model capturing the long-term effect of human capital and physical investment on potential output for a panel of OECD countries is augmented with public investment and its components. The estimations suggest that public investment has a positive effect on...

The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we...

This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy...