Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify implied probability distributions that might explain this...

Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put equity options, is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns at daily, weekly, monthly, to semiannual horizons. This...

Over-allotment arrangements are nowadays part of almost any initial public offering. The underwriting banks borrow stocks from the previous shareholders to issue more than the initially announced number of shares. This is combined with the option to cover this short position at the issue price....

With the innovation of derivatives, the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 index -- as an underlying asset of the volatility index (VIX) introduced by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) -- was adopted as the research subject in this study. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the degree of...

This paper documents that option-implied tail risk in the U.S. financial sector predicts real economic activity. The predictability is found to be incremental to the information content in a stock price-based measure of financial sector tail risk. This finding holds both in- and out-of-sample...

In this paper, we provide an exact formula for the skewness of stock returns implied in the Heston (1993) model by using a moment-computing approach. We compute the moments of Ito integrals by using Ito's Lemma skillfully. The model's affine property allows us to obtain analytical formulas for...

In recent years there has been a remarkable growth of volatility options. In particular, VIX options are among the most actively trading contracts at CBOE. These options exhibit upward sloping volatility skew and the shape of the skew is largely independent of the volatility level. To take into...

Equity option markets exhibit intense trading activity. We use the variability of option implied volatility spread as a proxy for the impounding of new information, and changes in the interpretation of existing information, into option prices. Over the 2006 – 2016 period, we find that the...

We study the intra-horizon value at risk (iVaR) in a general jump diffusion setup and propose a new model of asset returns called displaced mixed-exponential model, which can arbitrarily closely approximate finite-activity jump-diffusions and completely monotone Levy processes. We derive...