This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...

This paper addresses the transmission of exchange-rate variations in an estimated, small open-economy model. In contrast to the standard set-up of New Open Economy Macroeconomics models, imported goods are treated here as material inputs to production. The resulting model structure is...

This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

We contribute a new method for dealing with the problem of endogeneity of the threshold variable in threshold vector auto-regression (TVAR) models. Drawing on copula theory, enables us to capture the dependence structure between the threshold variable and the vector of TVAR innovations,...