of financial uncertainty over the period 1969-2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial … uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output gap, and output growth. However, this evidence regards the Greenspan …

We propose a new method of estimating economic uncertainty, using dispersions of forecasts of a wide range of financial …-frequency state-space model, we construct ex-ante macroeconomic uncertainty estimates of the one-year ahead expected state of the … economy. Impulse responses show uncertainty shocks lead to a contraction in economic activity, and monetary policy expansion …

of financial uncertainty over the period 1969-2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial … uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output gap, and output growth. However, this evidence regards the Greenspan …

. -- Financial Crisis ; Complexity ; Monetary Policy ; Model Uncertainty ; Robust Simple Rules ; ECB …