We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed at high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes. We introduce a flexible point-mass...

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...

Az új EU tagállamok gazdasági folyamatainak szembeötlõ jellegzetessége az egy fõre jutó GDP-ben mutatkozó felzárkózásuk, illetve az ezzel kapcsolatos árszínvonalbeli konvergencia. Amennyiben ez a jövõben is folytatódni fog, akkor az inflációra és árfolyamra vonatkozó...

We show by Monte Carlo simulations that the jackknife estimation of QUENOUILLE (1956) provides substantial bias reduction for the estimation of short-term interest rate models applied in CHAN ET AL. (1992) - hereafter CKLS (1992). We find that an alternative estimation based on NOWMAN (1997)...

Numerous studies have found a negative relationship between the closeness of an election, the size of the electorate and voter turnout. It is often claimed that this relationship supports the rational voter hypothesis, with closeness and size proxying for the decisiveness of a vote. We offer a...

We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed on high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes or the time between potentially...

This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and an innovative rational...

This paper compares the empirical performance of continuous time models for the dynamics of nine different implied volatility indices. The models include linear, quadratic and nonlinear drift specifications with affine, constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and stochastic elasticity of variance...

A wide community of practitioners still focuses on classic Sharpe ratio as a risk adjusted performance measure due to its simplicity and easiness of implementation. Performance is computed as the excess return relative to the risk free rate whereas risk adjustment is provided by the asset...