Inspired by Aumann and Serrano (2008) and Foster and Hart (2009), we propose risk-neutral options' implied measures of riskiness and investigate their significance in predicting the cross section of expected returns per unit of risk. The empirical analyses indicate a negative and significant...

This paper examines the impact of equity misvaluation on the predictive accuracy of bankruptcy models. We find that structural bankruptcy prediction models are not affected by misvaluation. However, for hazard models, forecasting accuracy for properly-valued firms is greater than for misvalued...

We formulate a Cournot-type market equilibrium model of simultaneous trading in the CDS and Loan CDS (LCDS) markets. We use novel formulations of two-market demand functions that include trading costs and margins. The equilibrium identifies a relation between premiums, elasticities and recovery...

Our objective is to test for evidence of information asymmetry in the mortgage servicing market. Does the sale of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by the initial lender to a second servicing institution unveil any residual asymmetric information? We are the first to analyze the originator's...

As the economy enters a phase transition into an aperiodic state, the tech industry finds itself at the brink of chaos. Inflated evaluations in private markets before IPOs and increasing Shannon entropy of post-IPO share prices reveal a market teetering on the edge. But is it a phase transition,...

This paper introduces a stress test of the corporate credit portfolios of 24 large German banks by a two-stage approach: First, a macro-econometric model is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase of the user cost of business capital for firms worldwide on three particularly...

We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between systematic risk exposure and debt maturity, as well as their joint impact on the term structure of credit spreads. Our model allows for time variation and lumpiness in the maturity structure. Relative to short-term debt,...

We provide insights into determinants of the rating level of 371 issuers which defaulted in the years 1999 to 2003, and into the leader-follower relationship between Moody's and S&P. The evidence for the rating level suggests that Moody's assigns lower ratings than S&P for all observed periods...

In this paper we empirically analyze the macroeconomic detenninants of insolvencies in Germany since 1970. It is shown that the growth rate of insolvencies can be explained by changes in the rate of return to capital and by preceding changes in the money market interest rate and the inflation...

We use the Kalman filter to estimate the structure of the secret currency basket of the renminbi based on daily data between 2005 and 2009. The currency weights of selected currencies are modeled as stochastic processes (random walks). The official announcement of the new exchange rate regime in...