Macro shocks produce high dispersion in firm-level equity returns, sales growth, and other outcomes. We show that this dispersion reflects observable differences in business characteristics. To do so, we combine firm-level returns on stock market ``jump" days with text about business risks in...

We estimate transitory and permanent import tariff shocks in the United States over the postwar period. We find that transitory tariff increases are neither inflationary nor contractionary, and are not associated with monetary tightening. In contrast, permanent tariff increases trigger a...

We present new facts about the largest American companies over the past century. In manufacturing, top firms in the 1910s, 1950s, and 2010s predominantly date back to around 1900. Even as this special generation persists, turnover among top firms has been substantial. In contrast, in retail and...

The slow adoption of climate change policies stems from concerns about their economic impact. The EU has led global carbon pricing through its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This study examines the effect of ETS policy shocks on global stock market returns at the country-industry level using...

We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession whenever the import elasticity is below an openness-weighted average of the export elasticity and...

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are highly procyclical--they increase during expansions and fall during recessions. Given this empirical fact, we estimate the response of emissions to four prominent technology shocks from the business-cycle literature using structural vector autoregressive...

Using data on exogenous liquidity losses generated by the fraud and failure of a cash-in-transit firm, we demonstrate a causal impact on firms' trade credit usage. We find that firms manage liquidity shortfalls by increasing the amount of drawn credit from suppliers and decreasing the amount...

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with two types of people where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to the price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though...

We develop a framework to analyze economies with agents facing time-varying concerns for model misspecification. These concerns lead agents to interpret economic outcomes and make decisions through the lens of a pessimistically biased 'worst-case' model. We combine survey data and implied...

We study how an economy's production structure determines the response of aggregate output and employment to sectoral financial shocks. In our framework, economic production is organized in an input-output network in which firms face financial constraints on their working capital. We show how...