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The Swiss business cycle and the lead of small neighbor Liechtenstein

Brunhart, Andreas - 2015

This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany … indicator for Switzerland's economy, regarding the growth rates as well as the output gap. This finding is based on cross …(st)staates Liechtenstein einen Vorlaufindikator für die Volkswirtschaft der Schweiz darstellt, sowohl was die Wachstumsra-ten als auch die …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011427978

A high-frequency GDP indicator for Switzerland

Kronenberg, Philipp - 2024

This paper presents a weekly GDP indicator for Switzerland, which addresses the limitations of existing economic … approximates weekly quarteron-quarter GDP growth for Switzerland and provides valuable information on the trajectory of GDP at high …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014562886

Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-Time Swiss GDP Data

Glocker, Christian - 2019

We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy allowing for non-linearities by means of a two-state Markov-chain. The selection of an appropriate set of indicators utilizes a combinatorial algorithm. The model's forecasting performance is as good as that of peers with richer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892535

Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data

Glocker, Christian; Wegmüller, Philipp - 2017

We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586

A monthly leading indicator of Swiss GDP growth based on Okun's law

Kugler, Peter; Sheldon, George - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 159 (2023) 1, pp. 1-14

We propose a unique method of nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth based on a forward-looking measure of unemployment (FLUR) and Okun's law that offers a number of advantages over current leading indicators of the Swiss business cycle. The following investigation, covering the period from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014506541

Capturing Swiss economic confidence

Wegmueller, Philipp; Glocker, Christian - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 160 (2024) 1, pp. 1-17

Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a "Swiss Economic Confidence Index" (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015372756

A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy

Burri, Marc; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2020

Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225774

The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014 : A Composite Leading Indicator for the Swiss Business Cycle

Abberger, Klaus - 2014

This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057114

Can a standardized aptitude test predict training success of apprentices? : evidence from a case study in Switzerland

Siegenthaler, Michael - 2011

From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008906040

The R-word index for Switzerland

Iselin, David; Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: Applied economics letters 20 (2013) 10/12, pp. 1032-1035

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010195949