This paper studies the ability of external imbalances to indicate subsequent exchange rate returns. We propose a simple twist of the Gourinchas and Rey (2007) approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint which is valid for countries that are net creditors (or net debtors) consistently...

Based on a vector autoregressive model, this paper shows that time variation in monthly excess returns on Swiss government bonds and stocks is predominantly driven by news of inflation and dividends, respectively. This finding is in marked contrast to US evidence which points to a more prominent...

Based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR), this paper shows that time variation in monthly excess returns on Swiss government bonds and stocks is predominantly driven by news of inflation and dividends, respectively. This finding is in marked contrast to US evidence which points to a more...

Bonds of Swiss non-government borrowers offered higher daily excess returns ("alphas") than suggested by their sensitivities to standard risk factors over the sample period from 2007 to 2014. By contrast, comparable bonds (same currency denomination and credit rating category) issued by foreign...

This paper studies the transmission of changes in short-term interest rates to longer-term government bond yields when interest rates are at very low levels or negative. We focus on Switzerland, where short-term interest rates have been at zero since late 2008 and negative since the beginning of...

We analyse spillovers from European Central Bank (ECB) policy sur-prises to asset markets outside the euro area using Switzerland as a case study. Our results suggest that Swiss asset price responses to ECB policy surprises are significant. They depend on the type and nature of the surprise and...