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confirmation than accommodated evidence. This position deviates from the standard Bayesian epistemological theory of confirmation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784054
Theories can be produced by experts seeking a reputation for having knowledge. Hence, a tester could anticipate that theories may have been strategically produced by uninformed experts who want to pass an empirical test. We show that, with no restriction on the domain of permissible theories,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012724352
We examine the fundamental concept of Popper's falsifiability within an economic model in which a tester hires a potential expert to produce a theory. Payments are made contingent on the performance of the theory vis-a-vis future realizations of the data. We show that if experts are strategic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012724353
Volatility is usually considered as a synonym for risk. Mainstream financial theory states that higher portfolio volatility is translated into higher expected returns while diversification helps eliminate idiosyncratic risks. This leaves us with an apparent anomaly as low-risk (low-beta) stocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018815
Francis Bacon, pioneer of the scientific method, noted in one of his aphorisms that “human understanding is of its own …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014152943
Bayesian methods constitute an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). This article briefly reviews … the concept of Bayesian methods, describes its differences with NHST, and discusses the potential of Bayesian methods to … advance family business research and practice. We argue that Bayesian methods are well suited to take into account the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014150655
This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available software package for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model. -- cofractional process ; cointegration rank ; fractional autoregressive model ; fractional cointegration ;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009270739
An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo's famous quot;Probability Approach in Econometricsquot; (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012726093
We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treatment and marginal treatment … of their treatmentcontingent outcomes. We use the method to study how child birth affects female labor supply in Denmark … on the treated computed using our method and traditional event-study methods are nearly equal. Finally, we study the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505326
We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treatment and marginal treatment … of their treatment-contingent outcomes. We use the method to study how child birth affects female labor supply in Denmark … on the treated computed using our method and traditional event-study methods are nearly equal. Finally, we study the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528349