In this paper, we provide a novel way to estimate the out-of-sample predictive ability of a trading rule. Usually, this ability is estimated using a sample-splitting scheme, true out-of-sample data being rarely available. We argue that this method makes poor use of the available data and creates...

Stock and option markets can at times reflect differing information. We identify three reasons for the presence of these periods of 'disagreement' between the cash and derivatives markets: 1) high volatility and noise trading; 2) high level of risk aversion; 3) speculation versus hedging trades....

Hedge funds shift investment strategies in response to changing market conditions. We adjust hedge fund returns for their risks in an estimation that accounts for regime-switching effects. Index factors are used to capture the returns from buy-and-hold strategies followed by hedge fund. Besides,...