From 2007 to June 2013, a small group of fee-paying, high-speed traders receive the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) from Thomson Reuters at 9:54:58, two seconds before its broader release. Focusing on the trading and price behavior in E-mini S&P 500 futures, we find that this tiered...

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...