Showing 1 - 10 of 15,767
increased stock price volatility at the firm level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234550
We propose a new instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. The instrument is constructed by exploiting variations in the price of gold around events that capture periods of changes in uncertainty. The variations in the price of gold around the events...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602536
Beaudry and Portier (2006) provide support for the "news view" of the business cycle, using a vector error correction model. We show that this result hinges on a cointegrating relationship between TFP and stock prices that is not stationary, thus making the estimates not reliable. If we alter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181050
return volatility. The model significantly improves prediction of the state of the economy using fully revised data. Real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896987
this relationship accentuates or attenuates idiosyncratic stock volatility. Fundamental uncertainty refers to the … stock volatility increases (reduces) with fundamental (information) uncertainty during both recession and expansion, but the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024285
Recent literature theoretically assumes that exuberant Investors' sentiments increase the price of capital, signals strong fundamentals of the real side of the economy and drive asymmetric nonlinear asset prices. This study offers empirical insights into the interaction between investor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949754
Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115594
The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600
This paper uses a battery of calibrated and estimated structural models to determine the causal drivers of the negative correlation between output and aggregate uncertainty. We find the transmission of uncertainty shocks to output is weak, while aggregate uncertainty endogenously responds to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219154
During the recent financial crisis, there was a dramatic spike, across all industries, in the volatility of individual … spikes in firm-specific price volatility, a pattern that poses a puzzle in terms of existing financial theory. The most … difficult economic times. This discovery of a long history of crisis-induced spikes in firm-specific price volatility has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259665