This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic news on the dynamics of interest rates and stock returns during "low" and "high" volatility periods. These periods are determined by estimating asset dynamics using a SWARCH process. Our results suggest that securities volatility is higher...

We present evidence of significant bias in event studies that investigate the effect of U.S. monetary policy on U.S. stock prices. To overcome this bias, we propose a new identification method based on the "Impossible Trinity" theory which argues that an economy with a fixed exchange rate and...

Market efficiency hypothesis suggests a zero level for the intraday interest rate. However, a liquidity crisis introduces frictions related to news, which can cause an upward jump of the intraday rate. This paper documents that these dynamics can be partially predicted during turbulent times. A...

An unanticipated tightening of monetary policy increases option implied volatility in equity and bond markets. At the same time, realized volatility declines over the period corresponding to the increase in option implied volatility. The result is a decrease in the volatility swap return,...

What explains the sharp movements of the yield curve in response to major U.S. macroeconomic announcements? To answer this question, we estimate an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals as risk factors. We assume that the yield curve reacts to announcements...

This paper models price volatility through description of the second-degree transactions and expectations averaged by time interval Δ. We call it - the second-order economic theory. First two price statistical moments define volatility. To model volatility one needs description of the squares...

This paper examines the causal relationship between money supply and stock prices. The analysis indicates a long-run relationship between stock prices and money supply. The analysis further indicates unidirectional causality from Money Supply to KSE 100 Index both in the short run and in the...

Should central banks respond to asset price bubbles? This paper explores this monetary policy question in a hypothetical economy subject to asset price bubbles. Despite the highly stylized structure of the model, the results reveal several practical monetary policy lessons. First, a monetary...

A large literature measures the effects of monetary policy shocks on asset prices. We promote a data-driven approach to designating monetary surprises via econometric tests for asset price jumps. Applying these tests, we identify the specific Fed communications that generate surprises....

We study the impact that macroeconomic news has on equity prices. While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news when the description of...