We demonstrate how it is possible to generate value for an investor with a hedge attached to the buy-and-hold strategy of a S&P 500 index fund. We study the S&P 500 index portfolio (not including dividends) and the CRSP value weighted S&P 500 index portfolio (including dividends) for...

How is it possible to successfully time the stock market using publicly available information if the market prices evolve according to a random walk in a rational market? Our paper answers this question by providing nine strategies to time the S&P500 index, using two specific real variables as...

In this note we document interactive relations between the excess volatility and the momentum effect in the cross-section of stock returns over the sample periods of 1963-1989, 1990-2010 and 1963-2010, along the line explored lately in Wang and Ma (2014). The nature of interactive relations...

This paper examines various state-space and VAR model specifications to investigate the contributions of expected returns and expected dividend growth to movements in the price-dividend ratio. We show that both models involve serious inference problems that need to be dealt with carefully. We...