Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

We examine how traders react to two prominent stock market regulations. Under a constant fundamental value (FV) process, price limits and trading restrictions significantly reduce the price level and mispricing size when traders are inexperienced. Under a Markov-process FV, there is no evidence...

The US Treasury effectively ”owns” about 24% of the stocks held by high income US taxable investors. Through the capital gains tax, Uncle Sam has an effective exposure of more than $1 trillion of equities. And this huge-but-silent investor might be about to get a lot bigger if capital gains...

The bedrock of financial economics is that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one which could lose you a lot of money. A lot of research in finance is focused on...

In this short note, we show investors one way to calculate ideal investment sizing by using two rules of thumb based on a simple outline of individual risk aversion. We illustrate these two heuristics, which are not widely appreciated, with thought experiments involving coin flips and ketchup &...

We find a significant negative relationship between stock returns during the week and the reported incidence of domestic violence during the weekend. Our findings suggest that wealth shocks caused by the stock market can affect stress levels within families, escalate arguments, and trigger...

We survey clients of a German online bank to study retail investors' beliefs about the autocorrelation of annual returns of the aggregate stock market, and the role of these beliefs in financial decisions. A majority of our respondents believe in mean reversion of aggregate returns, and these...

We use a large dataset of individual investor stock trades to demonstrate that investors are more likely to sell stocks with larger price changes in the previous day. This is consistent with investors trying to learn about the firms' fundamentals from stock returns. Our core contribution is to...

Previous studies document a relationship between gambling at the aggregate level and investments in securities with lottery-like features. We combine data on individual gambling consumption with portfolio holdings and trading records to examine whether gambling and trading act as substitutes or...

This paper investigates market-level and private investor trading patterns and performance around earnings announcements. We document clear evidence for abnormal trading around earnings announcements for both the entire market and households in Germany and observe that private investor...