Contrary to the common wisdom that asset prices are barely possible to forecast, we show that that high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable. We propose to model them using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This...

In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional...

Starting from the Cholesky-GARCH model, recently proposed by Darolles, Francq, and Laurent (2018), the paper introduces the Block-Cholesky GARCH (BC-GARCH). This new model adapts in a natural way to the asset pricing framework. After deriving conditions for stationarity, uniform invertibility...