Recent modeling developments have created tradeoffs between attribution-based models, models that rely on causal relationships, and “pure prediction models†such as neural networks. While forecasters have historically favored one technology or the other based on comfort or loyalty to a...

This study provides new insights on the nexus between Tweet sentiments and stock price in China. Based on machine learning, we classify the Tweets from Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five sentiments of anger, disgust, joyful, sadness, and fear. Using wavelet analysis, we find close...

This paper examines overreaction hypothesis in four emerging Balkan stock markets (Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Turkey), using average returns of four developed markets (US, UK, Germany and Greece), during the period 2000-2007. The hypothesis tested is that developed market movements create...

Treasury stock and firm market value using a modified Tobin's q are modeled by using a firm utility preference function and a quadratic constraint function. The choice of the quadratic form is based on an econometric analysis of the relationship of q to T, the amount of treasury stock held by...

The endo-exo problem lies at the heart of statistical identi fication in many fields of science, and is often plagued by spurious strong-and-long memory due to improper treatment of trends, shocks and shifts in the data. A class of models that has shown to be useful in discerning exogenous and...

This study is the first attempt to investigate both the linear and non-linear Granger causality between wavelet transformed spot and futures oil prices. Our findings consistently indicate bidirectional causality between the spot and futures oil markets at different time scales, under linear and...

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return...

The statistical estimate of the branching ratio η of the Hawkes model, when fitted to windows of mid-price changes, has been reported to approach criticality (η = 1) as the fitting window becomes large. In this study -- using price changes from the EUR/USD currency pair traded on the...