We use price pressure resulting from purchases by mutual funds with large capital inflows to identify overvalued equity. This is a relatively exogenous overvaluation indicator as it is associated with who is buying, buyers with excess liquidity, rather than what is being purchased. We document...

We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most important economic and financial hypotheses that have been tested over the past century. Due to many abnormal phenomena and conflicting evidence, otherwise known as anomalies against EMH, some academics have questioned whether EMH is...

We forecast monthly Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) using option market data and four different econometric techniques. Independently from the econometric approach used, all models produce quick to estimate forward-looking risk measures that do not depend from the amount...

We show theoretically and empirically that flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks in the index disproportionately more than the prices of small stocks. Conversely, flows predict a high future return of the small-minus-large index portfolio. This finding runs counter to the CAPM,...

We find that the performance distribution of the individual stocks inside a mutual fund can toss out additional information about the fund manager's stock picking ability. When a mutual fund contains mostly mediocre-performing stocks but one super-performer, it is likely that the overall fund...

In this paper, we show that the way in which fund managers are compensated can, under plausible conditions, lead them to act in a way that does not maximise the wellbeing of their clients. Due to performance bonuses in fund managers' rewards, there is a highly non-linear relationship between the...

In today's interrelated economies, financial information travel at speed of light to reach investors around the globe. Global financial markets experience regular shocks that transmit negative waves to other equity markets and different asset classes. Given the unique characteristics of...

Using microdata on stock-level lending positions from German mutual funds, we show that active funds use the equity lending market to obtain information about short sale demand. Funds reduce long positions in response to these demand signals, which allows fund managers to front-run public...

We examine the roles of rational and behavioural factors in explaining long-run premiums/discounts on closed-end funds, using evidence on equity funds from the US and UK. Although the processes by which fund prices converge towards long-run premiums or discounts are similar in the two countries,...