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We present a competitive model of takeovers that explains two robust features of the data: target premia and size-dependent bidder returns. Takeovers are driven by complementarity between two factors, non-tradeable "skill" and a tradeable "project". Firms are heterogeneous in both dimensions....
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We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
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The fundamental indicators of stocks include information as well as the effects of noise and bias on the stock prices …; however, identifying the effects of noise and bias is generally difficult. In this article, I present the true fundamentals … hypothesis based on rational expectations and detect bias components from the actual fundamental indicators by using a log …
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rational as they exhibit an anchoring bias. The forecasts systematically under-predict macroeconomic statistics and the … through this bias, i.e. we find statistically significant stock price effects of anticipated components of macroeconomic …
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