In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of conflicts and wars on key macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. Using a panel data with 9 countries from 1870 onwards, we first show that the consumption-to-output ratio is minimal during WWII for participants. While...

The basic assumption of a structural VARMA model (SVARMA) is that it is driven by a white noise whose components are uncorrelated (or independent) and are interpreted as economic shocks, called "structural" shocks. These models have to face two kinds of identification problems. The first...

The shocks on a stochastic system can be defined by means of either distribution, or variable. We relate these approaches and provide the link between the global and local effects of both types of shocks. These methodologies are used to perform stress-tests on the portfolio of financial...