mainly the imposition of a highly unrealistic prior for the global impact price elasticity of oil supply. Once identification … uncertainty about the global price elasticity of oil supply is accounted for by specifying a prior more in line with extraneous …

, (ii) aggregate demand and (iii) oil-specific demand shock, by proposing the Information Criterion model averaging as a … demand shock, and more persistent following an oil specific demand shock … is pervasive in the empirical results. In this work I revisit, in face of model uncertainty, the role of (i) oil supply …

/1991, speculative demand shocks also played a role. Third, it is shown that temporary oil price hikes influence economic decisions that … demand shocks can emerge that to date appear to have been overlooked. …