This paper derives sufficient conditions for a class of games of incomplete information, such as first price auctions, to have pure strategy Nash equilibria (PSNE). The paper treats games between two or more heterogeneous agents, each with private information about his own type (for example, a...

Prices play a key informational role in markets by revealing the private information of a diverse set of participants. But can professional traders accurately decipher these price signals? Can these professionals separate out the signal (the information on fundamentals) from the noise (erroneous...

Recruiting agents, or "programs" costly screen “applicants” in matching processes, and congestion in a market increases with the number of applicants to be screened. To combat this externality that applicants impose on programs, application costs can be used as a Pigouvian tax. Higher costs...

Recruiting agents, or "programs" costly screen “applicants” in matching processes, and congestion in a market increases with the number of applicants to be screened. To combat this externality that applicants impose on programs, application costs can be used as a Pigouvian tax. Higher costs...

We solve for the equilibrium dynamics of information sharing in a large population. Each agent is endowed with signals regarding the likely outcome of a random variable of common concern. Individuals choose the effort with which they search for others from whom they can gather additional...

This paper characterizes a general class of macroeconomic models with incomplete information, when the information process includes endogenous variables. I derive conditions for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, which apply even when the model contains endogenous state variables, and I...

We study a differential Riccati equation (DRE) with indefinite matrix coefficients, which arises in a wide class of practical problems. We show that the DRE solves an associated control problem, which is key to provide existence and uniqueness of a solution. As an application, we solve two...

In this paper we realize an early warning system for hedge funds based on specific red flags that help to detect symptoms of impending extreme negative returns and contagion effect. To do this we rely on regression trees analysis identifying a series of splitting rules which act as risk signals....

We test the proposition in Johnstone (2016) that new information may lead to higher, rather than lower, uncertainty about firms' future payoffs. Based on the Bayesian rule, we hypothesize earnings news that is inconsistent with investors' prior belief will lead to higher market uncertainty....

Prior studies show that investor learning about earnings-based return predictors from academic research erodes return predictability. However, the signaling power of “bottom-line” earnings has declined over time, which complicates assessments of investor learning about profitability signals...