Forecasting welfare caseloads, particularly turning points, has become more important than ever. Since welfare reform, welfare has been funded via a block grant, which means that unforeseen changes in caseloads can have important fiscal implications for states. In this paper I develop forecasts...

Dynamic discrete-choice models are an important tool in studies of state dependence in benefit receipt. A common assumption of such models is that benefit receipt sequences follow a conditional Markov process. This property has implications for how estimated period-to-period benefit transition...

With the introduction of expected credit loss based impairment methodology banks stress testing programs need to include forecasts of stressed impairment losses as an important component in the firmwide stress testing programs. The forecasts of stressed impairment losses are comprised of...