We analyze the determinants of the structure of public debt in the case of Spain, from a sub-national perspective. The endogenous shift in the composition of debt among short- vs long-term instruments, loans- vs securities, or residents vs non-residents, depends on observable measures of credit...

This paper examines the characteristics and determinants of the deviations between the initial and final figures of the Spanish public budget from 1985 to 2006. Our goal is to evaluate the extent to which initial budgeted figures adhered ex-post to actual fiscal figures, by trying to unveil...

This article characterises the level of uncertainty in the Spanish economy. Various indicators are analysed, distinguishing their source: financial market volatility, degree of disagreement between agents on the economic situation and economic policy uncertainty. Aggregate uncertainty in the...

We extend previous work that combines the Value at Risk approach with estimation of the correlation pattern of the macroeconomic determinants of public debt dynamics by means of Vector Auto Regressions (VARs). These estimated models are used to compute the probability that the public debt ratio...

This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986-2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after one year, this negative effect fading away...

Spain's public finances have been under significant stress during the crisis, despite pre-crisis fiscal surpluses and low levels of public debt. The impact of the crisis and an initial phase of counter-cyclical activism exacerbated the existing (structural) fiscal vulnerabilities. To correct the...