This paper suggests a new normative approach for combining beliefs. We call it the evidence-first method. Instead of aggregating credences alone, as the prevailing approaches, we focus instead on eliciting a group's full probability distribution on the basis of the evidence available to its...

In the newsvendor problem, a pull-to-center effect has been asserted, whereby subjects are said to order a quantity between the mean of the demand distribution and the expected profit-maximizing quantity. These claims have only been examined using group-level aggregate statistics. Looking at...