Assuming that a time series incorporates “signal” and “noise” components, we propose a method to estimate the extent of the “noise” component by considering the smoothing properties of the state-space of the time series. A mild degree of smoothing in the state-space, applied using a...

Determining potential output and the output gap-two inherently unobservable variables-is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying...