We present a robust Generalized Empirical Likelihood estimator and confidence region for the parameters of an autoregression that may have a heavy tailed error, and the error may be conditionally heteroscedastic of unknown form. The estimator exploits two transformations for heavy tail...

We develop methods of non-parametric estimation for the Expected Shortfall of possibly heavy tailed asset returns that leads to asymptotically standard inference. We use a tail-trimming indicator to dampen extremes negligibly, ensuring standard Gaussian inference, and a higher rate of...