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these forecasts. In this paper we analyse these effects on the context of dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models when … for return, volatilities, conditional correlation and VaR that is robust to outliers. The results are illustrated with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956168
We introduce a new fractionally integrated model for covariance matrix dynamics based on the long-memory behavior of daily realized covariance matrix kernels and daily return observations. We account for fat tails in both types of data by appropriate distributional assumptions. The covariance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968271
In practice, multivariate dependencies between extreme risks are often only assessed in a pairwise way. We propose a test to detect when tail dependence is truly high{dimensional and bivariate simplifications would produce misleading results. This occurs when a significant portion of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402973
We develop a new model for the multivariate covariance matrix dynamics based on daily return observations and daily realized covariance matrix kernels based on intraday data. Both types of data may be fat-tailed. We account for this by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized kernels,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010364103
We introduce a new fractionally integrated model for covariance matrix dynamics based on the long-memory behavior of daily realized covariance matrix kernels and daily return observations. We account for fat tails in both types of data by appropriate distributional assumptions. The covariance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531139
distributions. For such cases we calculate general bounds for two association measures, Pearson's correlation coefficient and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339585
When the ARMA-GARCH model errors lack a finite fourth moment, the asymptotic distribution of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator may not be Normal. In such a scenario the conventional bootstrap turns out inconsistent. Surprisingly, simulations show that the conventional bootstrap, despite its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081186
Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance targeting, which reduces the degree of parameterization and facilitates estimation. We compare the two approaches and investigate, via simulations, how non-normality features of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410634
Linear GARCH(1,1) and threshold GARCH(1,1) processes are established as regularly varying, meaning their heavy tails are Pareto like, under conditions that allow the innovations from the, respective, processes to be skewed. Skewness is considered a stylized fact for many financial returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803123
The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115